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Prediction for CME (2021-07-29T00:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2021-07-29T00:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17424/-1
CME Note: Partial halo SE in SOHO LASCO/C2, W in STEREO A COR2, both very faint. Associated with a filament eruption centered at S20W10 (near AR 12849), visible in SDO AIA 171/193/304 beginning 2021-07-28T22:01Z. From Lan: There seems to be a CME encounter at about 9:10 19:00 UT on Aug 2, characterized by increased magnetic field strength, some magnetic field rotations (not smooth though), and low proton temperature. The quiet magnetic field on Aug 3 in the region after the CME might be due to the stretching of field lines.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-08-02T09:03Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-08-01T08:30Z (-6.0h, +12.0h)
Prediction Method: EAM (Effective Acceleration Model)
Prediction Method Note:

Utilizing the upgraded version EAM_v3 [Paouris et al. 2021]

% Compiled module: EAM_V3.
******************************************************************************
Most pr. speed = 264.0 km/s 
The EAM version you are running is: v3
u_r =      188.952
Acceleration:       2.30515
Duration in seconds:        288384.22
Duration in days:        3.3377804
t2 is negative
**************************************************************************************
Acceleration of the CME:   2.31 m/s^2
Velocity of the CME at 1 AU:  853.7 km/s
Expected date and time for the arrival of the CME: 01/08/2021 Time: 08:30 UT

Lead Time: 74.05 hour(s)
Difference: 24.55 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Evangelos Paouris (JHUAPL) on 2021-07-30T07:00Z

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